India is experiencing an early heatwave season this year, with temperatures soaring to uncomfortable levels. As early as February, Mumbai recorded a temperature of 38.7°C, prominently higher than the usual average for the time of year (between 25°C and 30°C).
Several other parts of India are also witnessing unusually high temperatures. Delhi, for example, experienced its warmest February in 74 years in 2025. In Karnataka, the Health Department has issued a warning, urging residents to take precautions. Odisha, too, is expecting its hottest summer.
But why are we seeing such unseasonal heatwaves, and what are the underlying causes? Let’s explore.
A dry winter season
India experienced an exceptionally dry winter, with rainfall levels significantly below the expected amounts, contributing to an early onset of heatwaves. The country recorded only 1.4 mm of rainfall throughout February, which is 93% less than the usual 21.3 mm expected during this period.
The dryness can be attributed to several factors. The Economic Times quoted an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official as attributing this dryness primarily to fluctuating winds. The result: clear skies and a rapid rise in temperatures.
A weakening La Niña phase
A weakening La Niña phase in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions — a climate pattern that affects sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean — is setting the stage for a month of above-normal heat, as per meteorologists.
“During the first week, minimum nighttime temperatures will be 2-3 degrees above normal (16-18 degrees Celsius) in Indore, Ujjain, and other nearby areas,” Dr Ved Prakash Singh, director of IMD Bhopal, was quoted by The Times of India as saying.
Warm easterly winds
Meteorologists also attribute the early heatwave to warm easterly winds. Mahesh Palawat, a meteorologist at Skymet Weather, told Livemint that an anti-cyclone over Madhya Pradesh has been driving warm easterly winds toward the west coast.
This disruption in the usual wind patterns has caused temperatures to rise more than usual. Additionally, high humidity levels near the coast have exacerbated the discomfort, creating heatwave-like conditions.
Increase in greenhouse gas emissions
Outside the immediately visible causes, greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), remain major contributors to the rising temperatures that are causing hotter summers in India.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the total warming effect of these gases has increased by 51% since 1990.
Is this the new normal?
The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves in India suggest that it might be.
The country’s record-breaking heatwaves in 2024, with 536 heatwave days, and May recording the fourth-highest mean temperature since 1901, highlight this worrying trend. This data, coupled with IMD’s predictions of above-normal temperatures for March 2025, points to a persistent pattern.
Notably, research by Climate Central, using their Climate Shift Index (CSI), has shown that recent heat events in India have been significantly more likely due to human-induced climate change. For instance, temperatures recorded in Panaji, Goa, during late February 2025 were found to be at least five times more probable due to global warming.
The rising temperatures in India serve as a stark wake-up call, demanding a rapid and comprehensive adaptation of environmental and sustainability strategies. It underscores the urgent need for robust climate action plans at both national and local levels.
Edited by Arunava Banerjee
